1993 volume 25(4) pages 459 – 466

Cite as:
Pitfield D E, 1993, "Predicting air-transport demand" Environment and Planning A 25(4) 459 – 466

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Predicting air-transport demand

D E Pitfield

Received 11 November 1991; in revised form 27 July 1992

Abstract. In this paper, the efficiency of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and regression models in simulating air-transport passengers by route are compared and constrasted. It is concluded that ARIMA models are far superior not only in their simulation capabilities but also in their applicability to such data. In the context of the UK Civil Aviation Authority's approach to forecasting, it is suggested that ARIMA models, including those with intervention terms, bear closer examination.

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