1982 volume 14(5) pages 571 – 584

Cite as:
Stetzer F, 1982, "Specifying weights in spatial forecasting models: the results of some experiments" Environment and Planning A 14(5) 571 – 584

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Specifying weights in spatial forecasting models: the results of some experiments

F Stetzer

Received 11 July 1980, in revised form 3 June 1981

Abstract. The application of space - time forecasting models requires the specificaiton of a set of place-to-place weights. The existing literature contains several recommendations for this specificaiton. By a series of Monte Carlo simulations, various weighting rules are compared in terms of estimation of model parameters and accuracy of forecasts. It is shown that specification of the weights is important, especially when sample sizes are small and the data autocorrelated. Generally, the effective area of the weight function is more important than its distance decay.

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