1982 volume 14(1) pages 49 – 60
doi:10.1068/a140049

Cite as:
Souza R C, 1982, "Forecasting the progress of epidemics by means of a Bayesian-entropy framework" Environment and Planning A 14(1) 49 – 60

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Forecasting the progress of epidemics by means of a Bayesian-entropy framework

R C Souza

Received 3 October 1980, in revised form 7 October 1980

Abstract. In a recent paper a new approach to forecasting based on the Bayesian principles of information theory was proposed and called the Poisson - gamma single-state model. In this paper a two-state version of the Poisson - gamma model is formulated by considering the uncertainty not only in the parameters but also in the model itself. This model is particularly useful for modelling epidemic data such as measles by considering two different situations (states) of the generating process at each time point: viz, state 1 -- no epidemic phase; state 2 -- epidemic phase.

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