Souza R C, 1982, "Forecasting the progress of epidemics by means of a Bayesian-entropy framework" Environment and Planning A 14(1) 49 – 60
Download citation data in RIS format
Forecasting the progress of epidemics by means of a Bayesian-entropy framework
R C Souza
Received 3 October 1980, in revised form 7 October 1980
Abstract. In a recent paper a new approach to forecasting based on the Bayesian principles of information theory was proposed and called the Poisson - gamma single-state model. In this paper a two-state version of the Poisson - gamma model is formulated by considering the uncertainty not only in the parameters but also in the model itself. This model is particularly useful for modelling epidemic data such as measles by considering two different situations (states) of the generating process at each time point: viz, state 1 -- no epidemic phase; state 2 -- epidemic phase.
Full-text PDF size: 1087 Kb
Your computer (IP address: 18.104.22.168) has not been recognised as being on a network authorised to view the full text or references of this article. This content is part of our deep back archive. If you are a member of a university library that has a subscription to the journal, please contact your serials librarian (subscriptions information).