1975 volume 7(8) pages 887 – 898

Cite as:
Bennett R J, 1975, "Dynamic systems modelling of the North-west region: 4. Adaptive spatio - temporal forecasts" Environment and Planning A 7(8) 887 – 898

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Dynamic systems modelling of the North-west region: 4. Adaptive spatio - temporal forecasts

R J Bennett

Received 9 September 1974, in revised form 10 March 1975

Abstract. This is the last of four papers which have appeared in close sequence in this journal. The present paper examines methods by which distributed-lag, transfer-function models can be used for forecasting regional economic structure. The methods are based upon assumptions of both static and dynamic parameter behaviour in the future, and derive from an extension of the Wiener - Kalman filter to spatio - temporal problems, yielding minimum mean-square error forecasts. On the basis of the methods developed, a set of forecasts is prepared for the future levels of population and employment in sixty-nine employment exchange areas in the North-west region up to 1975 on the basis of data available in 1970. These forecasts are then compared with those obtained from other studies, especially the recently published Strategic Plan for the North-west. This comparison shows similar results for most areas, but divergences in other instances. It is noted that the forecasts achieved by the present methods are considerably cheaper and easier to obtain than those derived from the methods usually adopted in regional strategies.

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